Is a Mini Ice Age Coming?

G’day to you! Thanks for clicking by today. I appreciate it. Coffee’s brewed and the VTs are fresh out of the oven so dig in. Hey... in the middle of this heat wave...in the 30s here yesterday...I thought I’d bring you a little chilly news...a mini ice age approacheth...

A new model of the Sun's solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun's 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645.

It is 172 years since a scientist first spotted that the Sun's activity varies over a cycle lasting around 10 to 12 years. But every cycle is a little different and none of the models of causes to date have fully explained fluctuations. Many solar physicists have put the cause of the solar cycle down to a dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep within the Sun. Now, Zharkova and her colleagues have found that adding a second dynamo, close to the surface, completes the picture with surprising accuracy.

"We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun's interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time. Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%," said Zharkova.

Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity.

We predict that this will lead to the properties of a 'Maunder minimum'," said Zharkova. "Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago."

What does this mean to us? 2030 is not that far away so you might want to start stocking up on extra-thick long johns, toques, ear muffs, etc... and if you have a woodstove, about a hundred or so extra full cords of wood! 

Fifteen years away is all. Land in Florida, California, Arizona, will be at a premium. Thailand may even see snow... what?

See ya, eh!

Bob


Story Source:
The above post is reprinted from materials provided by Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).

Comment from Pat in Cornwall, ON regarding yesterday's post on cancer in crayons:

I'm going to stop eating mine!

Bob's reply:

Some of the colours are tastier than others, don't you find?